xel

Except for the chosen ones -- CEOs and the like who have outrageous salary and benefit packages -- almost nobody has been able to escape the financial pain in the world today.

'My pal Warren,' Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B), who only draws a $100,000 salary, has watched his net worth diminished by billions of dollars as his stock has unraveled like everything else. I last read Buffett had a 31% stake in Berkshire so he understands his shareholders angst, even if he does not feel their pain. The stock has dropped from a 52-week high of $151,650 to yesterday's close of $77,500 for a loss of 49%.

Once again in quarterly SEC filings Berkshire's holdings were released and I could not help but wonder if this great holding company had not become one more giant index fund. There are a lot of quality names in the mix including:

• Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI)
• Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE; COP)
• Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
• Kraft Foods'A' (: NYSE: KFT)
• Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG)
• U.S. Bancorp (: NYSE: USB)
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)

The above referenced stocks are all down with the market and there are still more that might be considered fallen angels or turn-around plays within Berkshire's holdings that include:

• American Express (NYSE: AXP)
• General Electric (NYSE: GE)
• Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS)
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
• Lowe's Cos (NYSE: LOW)

In addition to these publicly traded stocks Berkshire holdings include privately held Geico Insurance, See's Candies, Dairy Queen, Florsheim Shoes, and a multitude of others. Since so many stocks have been accumulated over the years I started to view BRK as a stock index and with that in mind did some comparisons between the Standard & Poors 500 and BRK.

The following is a three-year chart that illustrates that buying BRK instead of the index anytime in the last three years would have been beneficial by a 30% margin.

Eighteen months ago, banks were throwing money around with very little discretion. Now we find that they made a lot of bad loans, took extreme risk and jeopardized the global economy and the well being of hundreds of millions of people.

All this was supported by a simple minded president, corrupt Congress and an over-confident, short sighted investment community maneuvering in and around a sleeping Securities and Exchange Commission.

Having invested in a broad range of real estate assets (as well as stocks), I am feeling the pain like most everyone else. Reduced values, tighter liquidity, and uncertainty rule the market place.

What has me steamed currently is that I think there is more capital in the marketplace than courage! The lack of courage along with a shortage of leadership and wisdom continues to exacerbate a bad situation. I am probably better off than many people having been able to close two loans in the past month. It was not easy. However, after dealing with many financial institutions that are now doing a better job in the review process, I see that they have swung too far to the conservative side.

Yesterday, in response to Chasing Value: ISRG is falling and I'm buying I received the following comment from Beltway Greg, "You're a brave dude. Why? I've watched this stock for awhile and I worry about possible entry by other folks into the market."

Brave perhaps, even foolish on occasion, but I still think this is the time to be selectively buying equities.

To those that might be concerned about competition for Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) you will be interested in the following:

• NOTICE TEXT: Department of the Army U.S. Army Medical Command MEDCOM, North Atlantic Regional Contracting Office Subject: Contract prosthetic feet and leg coverings This is a notice of the Governments intent to solicit, negotiate and award a sole source contract (Note 22) contract to Intuitive surgical for Implants based on urgency. This is not a set-aside for small business. This notice is an urgent requirement for Walter Reed Army Medical Center, 6900 Georgia Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20307, contract number W91YTZ-09-P-0147. Parties interested in future announcements shall provide detailed information of their capabilities and certifications to clearly meet the requirements stated above.

It is possible that someday ISRG will have some competition, but there does not seem to be anything on the horizon for now. Furthermore, as the user base expands the barrier to entry increases and the cost of changing systems becomes more challenging.

The most likely scenario for competition would be if another manufacturer were to create a similar system for procedures not yet addressed by ISRG's Di Vinci robotic surgical units. Some of the potential competitors, like Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) or Medronic (NYSE: MDT), are actually corporate partners helping to distribute the units world wide. What is most likely from my point of view is that other manufacturers will find a way to partner with ISRG to develop complimentary hardware to expand the capability of the system for more procedures to get to market faster.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

One of my top holdings, Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) and favorite stocks is taking a beating this morning and has been along with almost everything else. One of our readers who has been following this story line sent me an email asking what my current thoughts on the subject are. Andrew:

"I'm just curious if you hung on to your ISRG or if you bailed on it... I've been following it since this article, and man, its really heading down to the boiler room... Doctors seeem to be making cuts all over the place, and it looks like ISRG is being taken for a ride... I'm looking at getting in, but maybe if it hits 112 to even as low as sub 100... But I'm curious how you've taken to it?"

As the old saying goes in regards to the stock market, beware trying to catch a falling knife. Regardless, I have been a buyer of late. But first questions first. We did sell 20% of our position for a large gain just under $200 per share, having originally bought in at $7.70. We did not bail out but we did take our original money off the table, and then some.

A former senior manager at CB Richard Ellis Group (NYSE: CBG) in Southern California, now a partner at a private real estate company where I am an investor said to me this week that the stock market was just "white collar gambling".

This is a relatively common thought from Main Street and when my colleague Ron, made the comment it was hard to argue that it is not.

It certainly looks like gambling when you consider how momentum day traders place their bets, or options traders, or commodities traders -- and the past few years -- CEO's of major corporations.

I certainly was playing this theme up when I posted The great leadership disconnect: I bet the farm and you lose in September.

Earlier in the week Ron had brought up the fact that CBG stock had dropped from over $40 per share to under $4 and it seemed like it was bound to get back sometime in the foreseeable future for a huge gain. The following is the three year chart.

Ron is a smart real estate guy but he is not a stock market aficionado. He believed the risk / reward opportunity seemed like a no brain-er (not that he was going to invest). The first problem is that idea of the foreseeable future. I think the market is not foreseeing much lately. Most things seem quite cloudy indeed.

Actually I could not help but ponder the matter because, coincidentally, I was at a business breakfast the following morning where the speaker was a manager with responsibility for CBG's Asian portfolio investments. When Ron brought up the subject originally I responded that I did not follow the stock, but that it did not have to return to it's previous glory to achieve a great return on investment. Suppose it took two years to go from $4 per share to $6 or $7. Most anyone would be delighted with a 25%+ annualized return.

As it turned out, I saw my associate later that day and he pointed out that CBG had jumped 40% from the day before. WOW, some of the day gamblers, I mean traders, must have made a killing. Of course that is only if they were on the right side of the deal, and sold in time.

CBG closed Friday at $4.84, down 10% and has been volatile lately as the chart and the stocks recent moves indicate. It has a beta of just under 2 which means that it moves at twice the rate of the broader market.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own any shares of CBG. I do not do any day trading.

This is the fourth in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

This week I envisioned an eBay (NASADQ: EBAY) without Skype, eBay Motors and Paypal. Everything goes to the highest bidder, excluding handling and delivery of course.

While EBay might benefit from selling Skype and Motors, considering they might be worth more to others like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and AutoNation Inc. (NYSE:AN), it should not sell PayPal unless it is contemplating a merger, since the acquiring company most likely would want PayPal to be an integral part of any deal.

Ebay is going through some growing pains right now but it is still a primary center of activity on the web. Although there are many disgruntled sellers that have left the site or been forced off because of the constant changes in the rules, it really has only one main rival and that is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

This is the third in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

The most valuable asset eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) has is PayPal, the dominant internet financial transaction facilitator. When I started imagining what might happen if eBay started auctioning off its parts I envisioned that PayPal would be worth the highest premium.

I think there would be dozens of interested companies that would find it highly advantageous to acquire PayPal.

The reason eBay bought PalPal in the first place was that they had first hand experience trying to compete with it when it was a separate company, and even with its huge base of customers, eBay could not build much traction. As the old saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them", or in this case buy them.

For starters, all of the major credit card companies would be very interested with MasterCard Inc'A' (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) leading the bidding and beleaguered American Express (NYSE: AXP) trying to find a way too.

Then there are the few prospering banks still left standing that would have to give this potential acquisition strong consideration. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) which has already bought out Countrywide Financial and will soon add Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) would find this a must have. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has added Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to its group of enterprises and might be best suited to expand the company given its growing resources. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) that recently agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) after staying on the sidelines most of the year might want PayPal, but I do not think it would pay up.

This is the second in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say, management, a platform for discussion.

Now that I have unloaded Skype from eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) in Tuesday's post (Serious Money: eBay should auction off Skype), it's time to move on to an asset that is not losing money, eBay Motors, but may be of more value to one of its competitors like Carmax (NYSE: KMX) or AutoNation (NYSE: AN).

It might also find a home with Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), its closest competitor in non-automotive categories. There is also the possibility that any number of auto-parts companies like AutoZone Inc (NYSE: AZO) or even the online car referral site Autobytel Inc. (NASDAQ: ABTL) would find eBay Motors a very compelling addition.

The Big Three American automakers might want to compete for this great asset. Since General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford Motors (NYSE: F) and Chrysler are having difficulty selling new cars, expanding used car sales would be enticing. The problem is they are basically broke and holding on to a thread for dear life. That is not the case for Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Perhaps eBay Motors might find a place in their long term plans.

This is the first in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

Over the years I have written numerous stories about eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), which I think has evolved from a must own stock of the new economy to just another company struggling to adapt to the rapidly shifting sand under its feet.

Having made money (bought after bubble burst) and lost money, owning a few remaining shares (sold most at $34), I have been pondering what I would do if I ran the company. My conclusion is that I might break up eBay; at a minimum, I would refocus it.

eBay has had spectacular growth in the past, though less now. It has made highly profitable acquisitions like Pay-Pal and terrible buys like money-losing Skype.

Here are some tidbits for all to cogitate on. In my view, Skype belongs in the hands of a communications company, not an online store. It has millions of users but eBay has not been able to monetize its growth. I think it's time to sell it. The telephone and wireless companies could make much better use of this asset by integrating it into complimentary service bundles.

On more than one occasion, "my pal Warren" has commented that folks have no fear about buying stocks at the top of the market but give them a chance to buy that same stock on sale at half the price and they have no interest.

Last March I was lamenting a lost opportunity to buy Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) at $26 or $27 before it popped to $34 a share. I wanted it at a price it never dropped to, and I did not get it (Chasing Value: Anglo American -- great pick, but alas...).

Then the market started dropping, and dropping some more until finally things were looking pretty bad and I decided it was time to make my play. I recently bought in at $11.69. and it has bounced up and down since then, closing on Thursday November 6, at $10.37, dropping from $12.13 a day earlier.

Since last spring the bottom has fallen out of the commodities market. If you have pondered the idea of buying into a diversified fund focused on mining and mineral assets, then the following profile may depict a stock for you.

• The UK-based company owns significant stakes in global producers of platinum (75%, Anglo Platinum) and diamonds (45%, De Beers S.A.). In addition, Anglo American has interests in ferrous and base metals, and industrial minerals; it also is one of the world's largest independent coal miners. Though it used to have a majority stake in AngloGold Ashanti, Anglo American has reduced its share to 17%. The company controls assets around the world.

Just a few metrics that may be of interest: AAUK is paying over a 5% yield, has a forward P/E ratio 3.2, and almost 30% profit margins. As the following 10-year chart indicates, the stock is almost down to where it was way back then.



Given that the world is printing money unabashedly, and that China and India are not going to stop growing, I think the current prices for coal, gas, diamonds, gold, silver, platinum and all else are destined to go up dramatically after we all take a deep breath. I have no idea what will happen in the short term, but in the long term I believe inflationary pressures will be significant.

Owning a company like Anglo American that is diversified around the world with significant exposure to both precious and semi-precious materials, as well as basic commodities, seems like a good place to invest, if you have the courage to buy it on sale as I believe it is now.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

For some reason this morning several high profile stories I have been ranting about in recent months have floated to the top of the headline heap again.

I just read that Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang is ready to return to the bargaining table with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) stating: "To this day, I believe the best thing for Microsoft to do is to buy Yahoo," Yang said Wednesday evening at the Web 2.0 summit in San Francisco.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! This has to be one of the biggest jokes in the investment world -- unless you are a Yahoo! shareholder. It was only last week I posted Yahoo rejects $30 to buy itself for $12?

Microsoft could now offer a 20% premium to today's stock price and still buy Yahoo for half what it offered last January. What do they say -- "good things come to those who wait". This is certainly a screaming example.

I would love to be in the conference room or on the call when Microsoft offers up a few crumbs to bail them out of a sticky situation. I was against MSFT doing the deal for a bloated price before, but it might make sense now. It could buy the company, and with Wall Street titan and M&A guy Carl Icahn on board, slice and dice this thing so that it cost them next to nothing to get the search advertising part of the company they coveted.

Yang looks like a child playing with grown-ups and his biography is taking one hit after another. Good thing he does not need food money and will never have to work again no matter what happens. By contrast, if Yahoo! took the $44 billion it would have been the deal of the year and Yang would look brilliant again. If I was a shareholder I would be really, really steamed!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of MSFT or YHOO.

CNBC is reporting a Second Stimulus May Arrive by Christmas - I hope it looks different than the last one.

It is being reported that

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday urged passage of at least $61 billion in new economic stimulus funding this month, but said the future of the legislation requires the cooperation of Republicans in the Senate and President Bush.

I am having deja vu all over again! At least $61 billion but discussions are ranging up to several hundred billion dollars. I hate this idea and stated so numerous times last March, including one of my most important stories of the year (I think) Fund roads & bridges NOT mad money stimulus.

It was not so long ago that Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) was setting new 52-week records all the way up to a high of $97.43. All the while I was bewildered as to how the market could overvalue something so much, and many were rationalizing to me why I just didn't get it. I still don't get it, even at today's 50% lower stock price.

AMZN closed yesterday at $51.98 and it is down a few bucks in early trading to around $49.00. A year ago I posted Amazon is not worth a penny over $60 - and I think even less! for all the same reasons I would not look at it until it hits $30.00 now. You just can't pay a forward P/E or 33 into a lousy market for a retailer when the Wal-Marts (NYSE: WMT) of the world trade at a P/E of 15, and often less than that!

I think if anything in these troubled times Wal-Mart might be worth the higher premium just because it is far more predictable and looks increasingly more competitive. Hard to believe that is possible, but that is how the last few earnings reports came out.

It was only two weeks ago I posted about one of the stocks I own and follow closely Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical Earnings -- what now?, a company that I consider an "Obama pick". My frequent readers know that the company is one of my older investments and one that has paid off handsomely. Although Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) may still be a profitable investment at it's current level, at this point, it is well covered.

Searching for something less known, and certainly more controversial, I have the ideal Obama stock pick to add to your watchlist, StemCell Inc. (NASDA: STEM) which closed yesterday at $1.90. per share. It is not profitable, spends heavily on Research and Development and is highly speculative. So was ISRG when I got in very early.

The company profile states that STEM "discovers cell-based therapies to treat diseases of the central nervous system (CNS), such as cerebral palsy and Alzheimer's disease, as well as spinal cord injury. It is researching stem cell and progenitor cell (cells that have developed from stem cells) therapies to repair neural tissue damaged by disease and injury, and has discovered markers for CNS stem cells and a way to reproduce them for transplant."

The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.

I have voted Republican and I have voted Democrat. I vote for the person, not the party. As the nation ponders who will be sitting in the Oval Office in 2009 I am quite confident that I am not alone. From day one I have felt that Dubya was in the White House because of dear old dad, the senior being far more qualified than junior. Junior became the front man for ideologues more intent on forcing their will upon others after a very dubious election result than all else.

From what I have seen and read, GWB has never been a great success at anything but politics, and now that reputation is toast too. While history has been kind to some past presidents allowing at least partial redemption -- Truman as direct, honest and a strong leader, Nixon on foreign policy issues, and most recently Carter as a humanitarian -- our current president has little to show for his eight years.